BOOM OR BUST: FLORIDA STATE SEASON PREVIEW

With Mike Norvell entering his seventh season as head coach of the Florida State Seminoles, the pressure in Tallahassee is at an all-time high. After finishing 5-7 last season, FSU opened 2026 with a 34-17 win over New Mexico State before losing 27-24 at home to No. 19 SMU. The Seminoles are now 1-1 overall and 0-1 in the ACC, with a trip to No. 10 Alabama coming this Saturday at 3:30 PM.

Florida State’s problems became even greater when athletic director Michael Alford was fired just two games into the season. Alford had led the department since 2022 and signed Norvell to an eight-year extension following FSU’s undefeated 2023 regular season. However, he faced criticism surrounding NIL, roster funding, and the athletic department’s reported $437 million in debt. Bruce Warwick will serve as interim AD while FSU searches for a permanent replacement.

A New Quarterback: For the third straight season, Florida State entered the year with a transfer quarterback. Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels has completed 58% of his passes for 327 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He has also been valuable as a runner, scoring twice on the ground and rushing for 71 yards against SMU.

Daniels is athletic, but the passing game has been inconsistent. FSU averages only 163.5 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per attempt. The Seminoles also went 2-for-15 on third down against SMU and scored only seven points off four Mustang turnovers. Future opponents will crowd the box unless Daniels becomes more effective through the air.

A Strong Running Back Room: Sophomore Ousmane Kromah has been FSU’s best offensive player, opening the season with consecutive 100-yard games. He rushed for a career-high 116 yards and a touchdown against SMU, including a 54-yard run. Samuel Singleton Jr. provided another reliable option and caught a 39-yard touchdown that tied the SMU game.

FSU averages 208 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry, compared to only 163.5 passing yards. Between Kromah, Singleton, and Daniels, the Seminoles have enough rushing ability to control games. The problem is that the offense has become too dependent on the ground.

Receivers and Tight Ends: Duce Robinson entered the season as Florida State’s top receiver after catching 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns in 2025. Through two games this season, however, he has only five receptions. Against SMU, he caught two passes for 25 yards.

Sophomore Jayvan Boggs has shown potential, while tight end Desirrio Riles made an important fourth-down catch against SMU.

However, no receiver or tight end has consistently created separation. Daniels needs Robinson, Boggs, and Riles to become reliable third-down targets if FSU wants to develop a balanced offense.

Offensive Line Concerns: The offensive line has helped FSU average 208 rushing yards, but its pass protection remains inconsistent. The Seminoles have allowed four sacks through two games, and protection problems contributed to their failed final possession against SMU.

The line has created rushing lanes for Kromah and Daniels, but the offense has converted only 34.5% of its third downs. This group must protect Daniels and prevent negative plays from forcing an inconsistent passing offense into third-and-long situations.

A Quiet Defensive Line: Florida State’s defensive line has been effective against the run, allowing only 101 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. However, the pass rush has produced only three sacks through two games and failed to record one against SMU.

Mandrell Desir, Daniel Lyons, Darryll Desir, and the rest of the defensive front must create more pressure. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings had enough time to throw for 430 yards and three touchdowns. The secondary has made mistakes, but the defensive line must help by making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Linebacker Depth: Omar Graham Jr. and Chris Jones each recorded nine tackles against SMU, while Caleb LaVallee contributed a tackle for loss and an important third-down pass breakup. The linebackers have helped FSU prevent a rushing touchdown through its first two games.

However, the group has already lost freshmen Izayia Williams and Daylen Green for the season, while veteran Blake Nichelson will miss an extended period. Graham, Jones, and LaVallee must remain healthy because the depth behind them is quickly becoming a concern.

A Boom-or-Bust Secondary: Florida State’s secondary has created three interceptions through two games. Quindarrius Jones forced and recovered a fumble on SMU’s opening possession, while Nehemiah Chandler and Ashlynd Barker intercepted Jennings. Those takeaways helped keep FSU in the game.

However, the Seminoles are allowing 351 passing yards per game, 65.8% completions, and 8.9 yards per passing attempt. SMU finished with 585 total yards and produced touchdown passes of 50 and 79 yards, along with another 64-yard completion that set up a field goal.

The secondary has enough talent to force turnovers, but communication and discipline must improve. FSU cannot depend on takeaways to cover up repeated explosive plays, especially with Alabama, Miami, Clemson, and Florida still on the schedule.

Special Teams Stability: Kicker Gabe Panikowski has made all three of his field-goal attempts and all seven extra points, including a 46-yard field goal against SMU. Punter Daniel Hughes has also averaged 45.4 yards per punt, helping FSU maintain respectable field position.

Florida State recovered a muffed punt against SMU that helped set up Kromah’s touchdown. With the Seminoles likely to play several close games, their reliable kicking and punting units could become extremely important. Special teams will be very important.

Michael Alford Fired: Alford’s firing was not caused by one loss, but the defeat against SMU reinforced concerns about Florida State’s direction. The Seminoles are only 8-18 since the beginning of 2024, showing a dramatic collapse after their 13-1 ACC championship season in 2023.

Alford was one of Norvell’s strongest supporters, so his departure increases the pressure on the head coach. Norvell’s large buyout makes an immediate firing difficult, but every remaining game will now become part of his evaluation. Florida State’s next permanent athletic director may ultimately decide whether Norvell remains with the program.

Conclusion: Overall, Florida State has a talented rushing attack, an athletic quarterback, and a defense that can force turnovers. However, the Seminoles average only 371.5 total yards per game while allowing 452. The passing offense lacks explosiveness, the defensive line has not created enough pressure, and the secondary continues to surrender big plays.

FSU must still play Alabama, Virginia, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, and Florida. After already losing its ACC opener, the path to the conference championship is extremely narrow. I have Florida State finishing 4-8. The Seminoles should run the ball and defend the run well enough to beat some of the weaker opponents, but their passing game and secondary are too inconsistent to trust against the best teams on the schedule.

This season has become a defining test for Mike Norvell and the entire football program. Michael Alford has already lost his job, and unless FSU improves quickly, he may not be the final major figure to leave Tallahassee