INitial cfp rankings reaction

While there will always be critics of any college football ranking, the first CFP ranking of the 26-27 college football year will without a doubt be under heavy fire as it deservedly should be. While there is still plenty of regular season football left to play, this sets up the basis for the committee’s decisions moving forward as we track (or at least try to) their reasoning for movement from week to week. 

1. Miami 

Enjoy the agreement now because after this, common ground is hard to find. Miami is undefeated and has been showing consistent dominance over the teams they play only up until recently. But with the rest of the cannibalism within the top-25 taking place, you must reward the teams that can stay unscathed. That said they have looked shaky. What should be easy wins for the number 1 team in the nations, their match ups against UNC and FSU didn’t seem all that convincing. But a win is a win. Their main gripe against them is their lack of strength of schedule. So this coming match up against Notre Dame becomes crucial if Miami wants to justify their ranking. 

2. Georgia

Currently standing 7-1 with solid ranked wins and only an upset loss by a field goal Georgia for me has been the standard of consistency (excusing the Auburn game). They dominate both sides of the ball tough in your face defence that wears an offense down, complimented by both a strong rushing and passing game. For me, they pass the eye test with flying colors. The only issue that we run into is that loss against Auburn. Their non conference schedule certainly isn’t something helping them playing an FCS, a G5 and a Georgia Tech team that has seen much better days. It brings up the question of how large the penalty should be for losing to a mediocre Auburn team. When the official selection comes out in December, if the Bulldogs continue to play their game,                 I don’t doubt they should be included, most likely with a bye as well, but it will be important to monitor how their schedule looks when the final game ends to determine their spot.

3. Utah 

Good and fair ranking for the Utes. Undefeated, unfazed, and a ranked win is perfect for the 3rd ranking here. While only 17th ranked Houston is the hardest team they’ve played, they’ve shown good consistency in Big 12 play dominating opponents. The real question in my opinion comes down to this Saturday against BYU and next against current 22, Arizona. It brings forth 2 questions about Utah for me: can you do it at the highest level, and can you do it on the road? If Utah can answer yes to at least one of these questions, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be included in the CFP.

4. Indiana 

The hype is over, I’m done with the feel good story. Indiana, a team with a loss, who hasn’t beaten a ranked team, played an FCS and two weak G6 teams for their non-con and can barely beat Big 10 teams in overtime is not the 4th best team in the country. What confuses me most about this placement is that the committee seems to have a higher value on strength of schedule than on outright record. So why does a team that clearly doesn’t have a strong strength of schedule get rewarded for only being one loss. I know my disappointment is coming across very clearly but in truth, there is a lot of football left to play.

5. Alabama 

I don’t know how Alabama consistently finds itself ranked by the CFP committee in playoff positions. This, in my opinion, might be the worst ranking for Alabama football I’ve ever seen. 1 ranked win against 21st ranked South Carolina and 2 loses. Albeit to 2 top 15 teams but a high quality of loss doesn’t equate to win, a win is a win and of everyone in the top 10, they are one of 3 teams with 2 loses. The other two, Texas and Kentucky. This is not a result of a fair eye test nor a demonstration of strength of schedule, this is a clear example of the demonstrated bias towards SEC schools. I can agree that it is probably the strongest conference in football, but the difference between the rest of the conferences and the SEC is not major enough to deem every SEC opponent “of a higher quality”. Alabama is a good team and should be ranked, but the teams below have a much better case for why they should be in front of Alabama based on their on field performance. Alabama’s case to me seems based on hypothetical matchups; and as it stands, the SEC has never lost a hypothetical. 

7. Texas

They say everything is bigger in Texas, and they sure aren’t wrong. Texas has some of the highest quality wins against 10th ranked Ole Miss, 12th ranked Ohio St, and 13th ranked Tennessee. Along with this they dominated Mississippi St 31-3 and beat UTSA who is looking to snatch the group of 6 spot. But if the wins are bigger, so are the losses. In heartbreaking fashion, unranked Oklahoma walked it off in Dallas on a game winning field goal to be then followed up by choking a 17-3 lead to currently ranked 24th Florida at home. For me, Texas does not pass the eye test. They’ve let up comebacks against Oklahoma, Florida, and Ole Miss(though they saved it) and Arch Manning is proving the haters correct. In power 4 games, he’s thrown 9 touchdown passes and give the ball away 9 times(6 int, 3 fum). What is most noticeable is how he performs when it becomes time to clutch up. He fumbled the ball away on what could have been the game winning drive and after letting up the lead to Ole Miss, he threw a pick in the 4th only to be bailed out by Raleek Brown and the Texas Defense. Texas is another SEC team receiving the benefits of the southern bias and while their wins justify them being in contention for the CFP, they need to be able to show more consistency to secure their spot. 

8. UCLA 

There isn’t much more UCLA could have possibly done. As it stands they are undefeated with a ranked win against Oregon. Now UCLA’s strength of schedule isn’t fully their fault. Their non-conference consisted of a highly anticipated Cal team who fell short of expectations and two G6 teams. Along with this, their schedule consists of Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, and USC, all 4 having come into the season with large expectations that haven’t played out.

UCLA has been built off of their strong defense and rushing game as they’ve had to adjust for the loss of their starting QB Nico Iamaleava with Ty Dieffenbach stepping up.

But now that they're entering their last 4 games, it's time to prove this isn’t a Cinderella story and UCLA is really here to play. I’d bet most fans are more than satisfied with the turn around in 1 year but with a real chance to make the CFP, UCLA needs to prove they belong. Staying consistent through each game, beating Michigan at the Big House and USC, the final ranked opponent they play, are the clear path for the Bruins to make their first CFP appearance.

The main question that arises from me is how Utah was ranked 5 whole places above UCLA. I understand that UCLA’s schedule isn’t strong enough to advocate for a top 3 position, but Utah has played a very similar strength of schedule with also only 1 ranked win. This mixed signaling of value of strength of schedule vs outright wins becomes confusing on who they apply it to.

11. Notre Dame

The committee has all but said what almost everyone is thinking about Notre Dame, “beat Miami or say goodbye to the playoffs”. Notre Dame’s schedule has come under heavy fire for their weaker strength of schedule considering only 2 of their wins have records .500 or above. They dominate the teams they play but they aren’t that good. Their loss to BYU (which should have a heavy asterisk on it), looked good until BYU lost to UCF the following week and just like that, Notre Dame have found themselves in a do or die position. With a win against the number 1 team in the nation, the Irish have a clear case as to why they should be included in the CFP. But with out it, it’s going to feel like deja vu from last year. 

16. Wake Forrest

Put some respect on Wake Forest now. 7 wins and only 1 loss to the number 1 team in the nation, there isn’t much more Wake can do. Now again strength of schedule is their weak point. Their only somewhat valid win is formerly ranked Louisville but they have beaten opponents convincingly. When I saw Wake ranked 16th, I was convinced that SOS would have a larger emphasis on rankings. But they seem to only apply to certain teams and not to others. 

23. Oregon

3 loss Oregon started as preseason number 2 and has fallen way short of expectations. But the committee has seemed to throw Oregon a lifeline. Ranked 23rd, the Ducks have a chance. After beating a ranked Northwestern team, Oregon has shown that as a team, they are down but not out. If they can win out against Ohio St, Michigan, MSU, and Washington, along with the right teams losing, Oregon could find themselves in the Big 10 championship.

25. Boise State

The disrespect to the G6 teams in this poll was a little much for me. Not only have many out-performed expectations and stayed with or even beat power 4 teams, they have shown the gap between the power 4 and group of 6 is shrinking. Boise State 100% should have been selected along with another G6 team. I’ve seen great stuff out of UTSA and New Mexico who both have chances at taking the G6 spot.