Playoff picture is clearer: week 11 cfp bubble watch

CFP BUBBLE WATCH: WEEK 11

Preview the current playoff picture headed into week 11 with CFB Weekly below.

ACC:

LOCK: MIAMI

Even after a loss, Miami is a lock to me. Unless they find a way to lose to Duke, Virginia Tech or Boston College, they will be the host of a CFP game. That being said, they will want Malachi Toney back for the ACC Championship game, which will likely be a rematch against Wake Forest, along with the CFP.

WORK TO DO: WAKE FOREST

It is starting to look more possible that Wake Forest doesn’t have to beat Miami in the ACC Championship to make the CFP. All they may have to do is win at SMU, at Georgia Tech and vs Duke. SMU and Duke are a combined 14-4, so this won’t necessarily be easy, but certainly more possible than having to beat Miami in the ACC Championship. 

STILL IN IT: SMU (needs to win vs Wake Forest and @ Notre Dame)

BIG 12:

LOCK: UTAH

The locks are starting to filter in, and with a win in the Holy War over BYU, Utah is added to the list. They should just have to go 1-1 on the road at Arizona and TCU to make the Big 12 Championship and CFP, which they should be able to achieve based on how they are playing right now.

WORK TO DO: BYU, TEXAS TECH

Even with the Utah loss this past week, BYU is still in the hunt for the CFP because of the Notre Dame win. However, the way they are playing right now, losses to Baylor, Kansas or Cincinnati are certainly possible, and would knock them out of the CFP. Winning out won’t secure a CFP bid, but it is all they can do right now.

Texas Tech still plays on the road at Baylor and Oklahoma State. These are both loseable games, along with the game against TCU at home. With wins against only Arizona and Houston, Texas Tech may have to win out to make the CFP.

STILL IN IT: HOUSTON, ARIZONA

BIG TEN:

SHOULD BE IN: INDIANA, UCLA

Indiana is coming off of a bye week, but based on how they’ve been playing, I am not labeling them as a lock, yet. The Hoosiers still have questions at QB and already hold one loss. Losses to USC at home and Washington on the road are certainly possible, so I will hold off on calling them a lock for now, but they are in a good spot right now as a one loss top ten team. The Hoosiers certainly control their own destiny.

UCLA proved me wrong this week with a convincing win on the road at Minnesota. Michigan also looked horrible this week, so winning that game looks far more likely. That being said, UCLA’s likely floor is 11-1, which should be enough to make the CFP, despite their ridiculously easy schedule. Think of 2026 UCLA like 2024 Indiana.

WORK TO DO: USC, IOWA

USC indirectly had a loss this week on their bye week, due to Ohio State losing. They will need that win to boost their resume, and will need to also beat either Indiana or UCLA on the road, potentially both, if they want to make a playoff berth. 

Iowa sits at 7-2 with Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska left on the schedule. 10-2 Iowa wouldn’t be a lock to make the CFP, but they would certainly have a strong argument. 

STILL IN IT: OREGON

The Ducks kept their season alive on the road at Ohio State in a blowout victory on Saturday. If the Ducks can finish with momentum at 9-3 and wins over USC, Ohio State, Washington, Michigan and more, it could become hard to keep the Ducks out of the playoffs

SEC:

LOCK: GEORGIA, ALABAMA

Georgia is the clear best team in the country right now after blowing out Ole Miss. I am still not sure what happened against Auburn, but one fluke game shouldn’t distract anyone from what this team has accomplished this year.

The CFP Committee ranking Alabama at five was purely to give them room to lose one more game, potentially against LSU. However, the Crimson Tide just beat LSU and now has to play Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn to close out the season. Even if they manage to lose one of these games, which is unlikely, they are still likely in the CFP, as crazy as it sounds.

SHOULD BE IN: TEXAS

The CFP Committee also gave Texas a little bit of cushion to lose another game. They play at LSU and Texas A&M, but likely can go 1-1 and still comfortably make the playoff with marquee wins against Ohio State, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri (yes, I know, “marquee win against Missouri”).

WORK TO DO: OLE MISS, KENTUCKY, LSU, TENNESSEE

Ole Miss will likely drop far after losing to Georgia by a large margin. Perhaps the only thing going for them is that they have the head to head advantage over LSU if it comes down to those two teams at 9-3 for the last spot.

Kentucky only has two losses, but still plays three losable games against Florida, @ Missouri and Louisville. They will likely have to win out, as a 9-win Kentucky team will most likely not find their way into the CFP because of their logo, and quality of wins.

LSU has three losses and not a single win over a team currently ranked. However, they have chances against Texas and Tennessee the next two weeks, and will have to win both to make the CFP.

After a big win over Kentucky, Tennessee looks pretty safe with wins over Kentucky and Alabama. They may have to beat LSU at home, but could still make the CFP at 9-3, and would also have a solid chance to win that game. They also are only a field goal favorite on the road against Texas A&M this week.

STILL IN IT: SOUTH CAROLINA, MISSOURI

The Gamecocks and Tigers have held on for dear life to dwindling SEC playoff hopes

INDEPENDENT:

SHOULD BE IN: NOTRE DAME

After the win against Miami, Notre Dame has a solid chance of going 11-1, which may earn them a bye in the CFP. However, SMU will not be an easy game for the Irish, so until they win that one I will not be labeling them as a lock. That being said, even if they drop the game to SMU, the Irish would still have a good shot at making the CFP as long as Miami finishes strong.

TOTAL COUNT:

LOCK (4)

SHOULD BE IN (5)

WORK TO DO (8)

STILL IN IT (6)

Current Prediction:

After the first CFP Committee ranking reveal and Week 10 action, the 12-team field is starting to unfold. I predict that these teams will make the CFP, as it stands right now.

ACC: Miami

Big 12: Utah, BYU

Big Ten: Indiana, UCLA, Iowa

SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas

Independent: Notre Dame

Group of Five: Boise State OR New Mexico

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Texas Tech, USC, Kentucky

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, LSU, Oregon, South Carolina

Key Games this Week for the CFP Race:

Illinois at UCLA

Duke at Miami

Wake Forest at SMU

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Missouri at Georgia

USC at Indiana

Baylor at BYU

Ole Miss at Oklahoma

Florida at Kentucky

Utah at Arizona

Texas at LSU

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Another absolutely LOADED slate.