CFB Weekly week ten bubble watch

CFP BUBBLE WATCH: WEEK 10

ACC:

LOCK: MIAMI

Right now, Miami is the only team that I am entirely confident in, when it comes to making the playoff. Despite a nailbiter against North Carolina, they are still undefeated, and can lose to Notre Dame this week and still have a first round bye (if they win the ACC Championship). 

WORK TO DO: WAKE FOREST

It is starting to look more possible that Wake Forest doesn’t have to beat Miami in the ACC Championship to make the CFP. All they may have to do is win at SMU, at Georgia Tech and vs Duke. The way that they are playing right now, they can definitely do this, but it will be a grind for the Demon Deacons.

BIG 12:

SHOULD BE IN: UTAH

I thought Utah might be upset this past week on the road at Cincinnati. However, they absolutely demolished the Bearcats, and now I feel confident in them to reach 11 wins. They still play against BYU at home and at Arizona, but I trust them to win at least one of these games.

WORK TO DO: BYU, TEXAS TECH

Even with a loss against Utah this week, BYU should be fine for the CFP, thanks to the Notre Dame win. However, BYU has looked shaky the past two weeks, so losing to Baylor, Kansas, or Cincinnati is possible.

Texas Tech got a huge win against Arizona with Thomas Castellanos at quarterback. However, they will still be tested on the road against Baylor and Oklahoma State, which they may need to win to make the CFP.

STILL IN IT: HOUSTON, ARIZONA

BIG TEN:

SHOULD BE IN: INDIANA

After these past few weeks, I had to drop Indiana down. They have looked too bad against teams like Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan and Minnesota for me to say that they will definitely win against USC and Washington. While they get the job done in the end, Indiana looks far from good right now, and Josh Hoover was benched against Minnesota.

WORK TO DO: OHIO STATE, UCLA, USC

Ohio State will likely have to win out to make the CFP with their backup quarterback. They still play Oregon, Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan, so the road is far from easy. If Sayin was able to play in the CFP, I believe a 9-3 Ohio State would have a chance, but without him I can’t see the committee letting in a 3-loss Ohio State team with a backup quarterback.

UCLA is yet to play a team that is still ranked in the Top 25. That being said, they likely can only lose one game to make the CFP. They still play on the road at Minnesota and Michigan, along with playing USC at home. Winning two of these three isn’t a sure thing for UCLA, who has struggled at times despite their record.

USC got a major win against Ohio State, taking advantage of their backup quarterback. However, they still play at Indiana and UCLA, and may need to win both to make the CFP. 

STILL IN IT: IOWA, NORTHWESTERN

SEC:

SHOULD BE IN: GEORGIA

Despite the Auburn loss, Georgia should be just fine. I trust them and Kirby Smart to win two of the three games against Ole Miss, Missouri and South Carolina, which will be more than enough to get them into the CFP. 

WORK TO DO: TEXAS, OLE MISS, ALABAMA, KENTUCKY, LSU, MISSOURI, TENNESSEE

It’ll get repetitive talking about each of these teams, since each team on here, with the exception of Kentucky, are 2-loss SEC teams. They each have at least one game they can lose to get to 3-losses and be at risk of missing out on the CFP. However, it is almost certain by now that at least one 3-loss SEC team will make the playoff. 

For Kentucky, despite only having one loss, they may have to go 2-1 against three ranked SEC teams to make the CFP to close out the year. I don’t trust them enough yet to bump them up to the “should be in” tier, but they are certainly close.

STILL IN IT: FLORIDA, SOUTH CAROLINA

INDEPENDENT:

WORK TO DO: NOTRE DAME

While it is certainly possible for a 10-win Notre Dame team to make the CFP, it is also possible that they must win out to make the playoffs. This would require a win over #1 ranked Miami on Saturday and SMU two weeks later. Notre Dame is a field goal favorite against Miami in Saturday’s featured matchup and College Gameday will be in South Bend for the Top 5 matchup.

TOTAL COUNT:

LOCK (1)

Miami

SHOULD BE IN (3)

Utah

Georgia

Indiana

WORK TO DO (15)

Notre Dame

TEXAS,

OLE MISS,

ALABAMA,

KENTUCKY,

LSU,

MISSOURI,

TENNESSEE

OHIO STATE

UCLA

TEXAS TECH

BYU

WAKE FOREST

STILL IN IT (6)

Current Prediction:

As we get closer to selection day, it seems increasingly uncertain who will make the CFP. As it stands right now, I like the following teams to make the playoffs:

ACC: Miami

Big 12: Utah, BYU

Big Ten: Indiana, UCLA, Iowa

SEC: Georgia, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Texas

Independent: Notre Dame

Group of Five: Boise State OR New Mexico

First Four Out: Alabama, LSU, Wake Forest, Texas Tech

Next Four Out: USC, Tennessee, Missouri, Arizona

Key Games this Week for the CFP Race:

New Mexico at Nevada

BYU at Utah

UCLA at Minnesota

Texas at Missouri

Alabama at LSU

Oregon at Ohio State

Kentucky at Tennessee

Miami at Notre Dame

Georgia at Ole Miss

Iowa at Northwestern