Bubble watch pt 2: playoff picture entering week nine

CFP BUBBLE WATCH: WEEK 9

ACC:

LOCK: MIAMI

After another week, I still see Miami as a lock, and it is only getting better for them. As more teams pick up their second and third losses, Miami’s worst-case scenario, a loss to Notre Dame and in the ACC Championship game, would still put them in the CFP.

WORK TO DO: WAKE FOREST, SMU

Last week I said both teams’ “work to do” would be beating Miami to get the ACC’s automatic bid. However, as more teams ahead of them lose, it seems possible that either team could get an at-large bid, even if SMU loses to Notre Dame. These two teams play each other on November 14th, and there is a legit chance that the winner of that game is in the top 10 that Monday. 

BIG 12:

WORK TO DO: UTAH, BYU, TEXAS TECH, ARIZONA

After BYU and Texas Tech dropped games in upset fashion, and Utah picked up their first great win of the season, the Utes have emerged as the conference’s top dog. They will play BYU on November 7th and may need to win out, in order to avoid any Big 12 tiebreakers that could keep them out of the conference championship game.

As I just stated, BYU and Texas Tech were both upset on Saturday. However, BYU still has the Notre Dame win under their belt, so still may have room to lose one more game. However, Texas Tech likely has to win out, which would require a win on the road at Oklahoma State on November 14th.

Arizona is on the come up after a blowout win against Iowa State. The Wildcats have only lost one game this season, against BYU, and are certainly in the mix for the Big 12 Championship, or an at-large bid if they win out.

STILL IN IT: OKLAHOMA STATE, HOUSTON

BIG TEN:

LOCK: INDIANA

Indiana snuck out a win in an ugly game at Michigan this week. They looked far from good offensively, but their elite defense should be able to carry them to an 11-win season. They still play Minnesota at home, USC at home and @ Washington, none of which should be too difficult. Even if they lost to USC, they should be just fine. The way the Big Ten is shaping up, with quarterbacks getting injured and teams not playing to their ceilings, it looks like the Hoosiers may be back to back Big Ten champs.

WORK TO DO: OHIO STATE, UCLA, NORTHWESTERN

Ohio State will be in the “work to do” tier until one of their backup quarterbacks can prove something. This week they go on the road at USC so they won’t have a freebie. They also play Oregon, Northwestern, @ Nebraska and Michigan, all of which are loseable if they have subpar quarterback play.

For UCLA, their schedule could hold them back, and I see them as the only Big Ten contender that may not make the CFP at 10 wins. Currently, they are the only power conference team in the Top 25 to play one team all season that is ranked this week. 

Northwestern still has three tough games: vs Iowa, @ Ohio State and @ Minnesota, but will likely be able to drop one of those games and still make the CFP.

STILL IN IT: IOWA, USC, WISCONSIN

SEC:

SHOULD BE IN: GEORGIA

Even with the Auburn loss, Georgia seems to be the runaway favorite in the SEC right now. Every other team in the conference now has multiple losses besides Kentucky. By now I feel that we can trust Kirby Smart enough to get his team back into the CFP.

WORK TO DO: TEXAS, OLE MISS, ALABAMA, KENTUCKY, LSU

Texas had a huge win over Ole Miss and placed themselves right back in the mix. However, they have been inconsistent and Arch Manning still didn’t look great, having three turnovers against the Rebels. Texas will still play three tough road games against Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M, any of which could be losses if the Longhorns play to their floor. That being said, a nine win Texas team could still make the CFP, as they are the only team in the Top 25 with six or more ranked opponents this season. 

Ole Miss will play Georgia on November 7th, in what could be a win or go home game for the Rebels. Outside of that, they should be able to win out. 

Alabama has one of the weaker schedules in the SEC, so may miss out on the playoffs if they lose three games, unless their logo can carry them into the CFP. They will be tested on November 7th on the road in Death Valley when they face LSU.

Kentucky’s consistency will be tested in their final four games against @ Tennessee, Florida, @ Missouri and Louisville. Their record allows for one loss in these four games, but none of the four will be easy. 

LSU has a tough remaining schedule playing Alabama, Texas and @ Tennessee, and may need to win out in order to reach a 10-win season and make the CFP. However, LSU is certainly capable of this if they play like how they did this week against Auburn.

STILL IN IT: FLORIDA, MISSOURI, TENNESSEE

INDEPENDENT:

WORK TO DO: NOTRE DAME

I dropped Notre Dame down to the “work to do” tier due to the BYU loss. At one point it looked like a 10-2 Notre Dame could get into the CFP, as those losses could be against the top 2 teams in the country. However, BYU has dropped to #8 in the AP Poll after the loss to UCF, but will have the head to head advantage over Notre Dame come selection day. A 10-2 Notre Dame will still have a chance, as they already have a win over #25 Wisconsin and still play #19 SMU. If both these teams continue to win, a 10-win Notre Dame will most likely make the CFP, but if the Irish want to “leave no doubt” they may need to beat #1 Miami on November 7th.

TOTAL COUNT:

LOCK (2)

SHOULD BE IN (1)

WORK TO DO (15)

STILL IN IT (7)

Current Prediction:

As we get closer to selection day, it seems as if it is only getting more uncertain who will make the CFP. As it stands right now, I like the following teams to make the playoff:

ACC: Miami

Big 12: BYU, Utah

Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA

SEC: Georgia, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Texas

Independent: Notre Dame

Group of Five: Boise State OR Oregon State OR New Mexico

First Four Out: Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Northwestern, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona

Key Games this Week for the CFP Race:

Arizona at Texas Tech

Wisconsin at Iowa

Florida at Georgia

Northwestern at Oregon

Utah at Cincinnati

Ohio State at USC

New Mexico at San José State

Oregon State at Fresno State

The Utah game at Cincinnati is the one that I will be monitoring this week. Cincinnati just knocked off Texas Tech, and Utah is certainly in a letdown spot after a big win against Houston. If Utah drops this game, the Big 12 will further their conference chaos, and may put their multi-bid ability at jeopardy. 

Boise State could also emerge as the clear favorite for the Group of Six bid if New Mexico and Oregon State both get upset on the road. However, UTSA is another team to look out for in that race, with their only loss this season being against Texas.