IN NEED OF A WIN: MIchigan at rutgers game preview

Michigan arrives at SHI Stadium on Saturday carrying a season that has slid well off its intended path. At 4-3, the Wolverines have lost three of their last four, including a 13-6 overtime defeat to Indiana that summed up everything wrong with this team. For a program that has missed the playoff in each of the last two years, a third straight miss is no longer a fluke. It is a trend, and it sits far below what Michigan’s history, resources, and spending should produce.

Michigan Rant

The standard in Ann Arbor has never been to scrape together a bowl bid. With the kind of money flowing into this program, anything short of a playoff push reads as a failure of execution. That is what makes this trip to Piscataway so loaded. Michigan’s margin for error is gone, and the only realistic path back to meeting expectations is winning out. A game that would normally be a routine October road trip now carries real urgency.

Nothing has captured the offensive struggles quite like the sequence that has fans and analysts asking hard questions about offensive coordinator Jason Beck. Facing 3rd and goal from the 1-yard line, Michigan had every chance to punch in a touchdown.

Instead, Beck dialed up a play-action look that ended in a 13 yard sack, pushing the Wolverines backward and leaving the kicker to attempt a field goal he missed. Three guaranteed points and one yard needed for an extra four more, turned into zero. It may be one of the most pivotal and indefensible play calls any team has made this season.

Beck is under serious pressure heading into this one. The numbers back up the frustration: Michigan ranks 104th in EPA per rush, a staggering figure for a program built on physical, run-first football.

The identity is gone, the short-yardage trust is gone, and a coordinator who cannot convert from the one invites the kind of scrutiny now following him. Saturday offers a chance to show the offense can do the simple things well against a beatable defense.

The other storyline is true freshman quarterback Tommy Carr, who is expected to make his second consecutive start. His debut was uneven, going 20-of-32 for 167 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, but it came against the defending national champions, so a little forgiveness is warranted.

In order to settle Carr in, Michigan needs an absolutely elite performance from the RB room against a supbar defensive line. Rutgers presents a far friendlier test, and a clean, confident outing would go a long way toward settling the position and giving the offense some rhythm.

Rugers are not good on paper…

Rutgers, meanwhile, has had a season to forget. The Scarlet Knights sit at 2-5, and their only Big Ten win came against Maryland in Week 7. There has been little to build on and few moments that suggested a turnaround was coming. This is a team playing out the schedule, searching for any positive result to salvage something from the year, and the gap in talent and depth shows when they face a program like Michigan.

Prediction

Michigan is a 14-point favorite and Rutgers has actually been better offensively than its record suggests, ranking 53rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the under has hit in eight of the last ten meetings. That points to a lower-scoring game, and some sharp bettors like Rutgers to hang around and cover

Still, this is the kind of game where a team like Michigan should dominate. The Wolverines have the more talented roster, the stronger defense and every reason to play with desperation. If they cannot handle a 2-5 Rutgers team at full strength, the season is effectively over. Expect Michigan to win comfortably, though the margin will say plenty about whether this offense and its coordinator have anything left to offer.