WEEK eight preview: BUBBLE WATCH PT 1

CFP BUBBLE WATCH: WEEK 8

ACC:

LOCK: MIAMI

I see Miami as the only lock for the CFP heading into Week 8. Even if they lose in South Bend, they should be fine, and even if they lose the ACC Championship as well. The ACC is struggling this year so no one else should really be a threat to Miami, who is currently the #1 team in the country. 

WORK TO DO: WAKE FOREST, SMU

In my opinion, these two teams need to win the ACC to make the CFP, in most scenarios, which would require beating Miami. However, if chaos occurs all over the country and Wake Forest’s only two losses are to Miami they could sneak into the playoffs, but as we saw with BYU last year, this can not be relied on. SMU also plays Notre Dame, and if they pull out a win there, that will be a win on their resumé which will not require winning the conference to make the playoffs.

BIG 12:

SHOULD BE IN: BYU, TEXAS TECH

Both teams are undefeated and have already won their hardest game on the schedule. That being said, neither team will have to win the conference, and has room to lose at least one game. BYU has a marquee win that will carry them in CFP bubble conversations.

WORK TO DO: UTAH, HOUSTON

These two teams play each other this week and whoever wins will likely bump up into the “should be in” tier. However, since they play each other and Utah still plays BYU, they certainly have work to do. That being said, the Big 12 could certainly be a three bid conference this year, a surprise to many.

STILL IN IT: OKLAHOMA STATE, ARIZONA

BIG TEN:

SHOULD BE IN: INDIANA

Even with the loss to Ohio State, Indiana is comfortably in the CFP as of right now. Unless they lose to both Michigan and USC, they will be just fine with ten wins. A loss to Ohio State (with Julian Sayin) is a good enough loss that it won’t taint their resumé too much.

WORK TO DO: OHIO STATE, UCLA, IOWA, USC

Ohio State’s work to do is simply whether they can reach ten wins without Julian Sayin. UCLA also has their backup quarterback for the rest of the season, but has room to lose a game, and should be able to win 11 games with their easy Big Ten schedule. Iowa also has a favorable schedule and will make the playoff if they win out, with their only loss coming to Ohio State. USC only has one loss, but still has crucial games against Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA. The work they will have to do is more difficult than these other teams, but it is possible that a nine win USC team gets into the CFP with their schedule.

STILL IN IT: NORTHWESTERN, OREGON

SEC:

SHOULD BE IN: GEORGIA, OLE MISS

Both teams are extremely talented and only have one loss. They each have room to lose a game, but a loss to Texas this week for Ole Miss could require them to win out the rest of the way. The two teams will face each other on November 7th, and could face again in Atlanta in the SEC Championship.

WORK TO DO: ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY

Alabama has a favorable SEC schedule, but may need to win out to make the CFP. Tennessee needs to show more consistency on the offensive side of the ball, but they do have room to drop one game.

They are underdogs this week on the road against unranked South Carolina. Kentucky also has room to drop a game, but does still play on the road against Tennessee and Missouri, and may lack the consistency needed to stay hot for the second half of the season. 

STILL IN IT: LSU, TEXAS, FLORIDA, MISSOURI, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN 

INDEPENDENT:

SHOULD BE IN: NOTRE DAME

After the loss to BYU, Notre Dame may need to beat Miami. However, they have a solid chance of winning this game at home, and would have a solid shot to make the CFP at 10-2, especially if SMU continues to win.

That being said, they may have room to drop a game, but if they want to “leave no doubt” winning out will be necessary. If they accomplish this, they will likely receive a first round bye. 

TOTAL COUNT:

LOCK (1)

SHOULD BE IN (6)

WORK TO DO (11)

STILL IN IT (10)

As it stands right now, I like the following teams to make the CFP:

ACC: Miami

Big 12: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah

Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA

SEC: Georgia, Ole Miss, Kentucky

Independent: Notre Dame

Group of Five: Boise State OR Oregon State OR New Mexico

First Four Out: Tennessee, Iowa, Wake Forest, Alabama

Next Four Out: LSU, USC, Houston, SMU